Barack Obama

Polls and Pundits

(Cross posted on my BarackObama.com blog)

I have sat transfixed in front of the television since before the Iowa caucuses watching every bit of news related to the primary elections that I could suck up. Flitting nervously from news channel to news channel (avoiding Fox of course) trying to figure out what was really going on with the voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, I began to get caught up in the predictions rather than the facts on the ground and the thoughful analysis thereof. I found myself looking for polls and analysis that told me what I wanted to hear, rather than what we needed to hear. The result was that I lost my perspective. I felt like Obama couldn’t lose. It was in the bag.

I should have known better than to rely on what I was hearing from the major news sources, but I did watch the CPSAN coverage of the actual caucusing in Iowa, and the dynamic that I saw during that caucus session was powerful and tangible. I got to see the process of people making up their minds between the candidates in real time, and the overwhelming majority of the voters in that caucus decided to vote for Obama. Why? And why did that dynamic not play out in the same way in New Hampshire.

I think the polls and pundits had a lot to do with the differences in the Iowa and NH outcomes. Up until Iowa, the polls and pundits were predicting overwhelming victory for Clinton. They were wrong. After the strong showing for Obama in Iowa, suddenly the story became a predicted landslide victory for Obama in NH. What were these predictions based on? The polls in NH in the first day or so after the Iowa results showed Clinton holding a lead that ranged from a few points to double digit points. Sure, Obama was drawing large crowds in NH. He draws large crowds (thousands to tens of thousands) everywhere he goes, and has been for almost a year now. But the polls and pundits had not been impressed by these crowds until after the Iowa victory. So why were the polls and pundits so easily swayed that they missed the call on the NH results as badly as they did on the Iowa results? Basically, their predictions were based on either the wrong criteria or bad data, or both. The data posted in this post on the BradBlog provides an interesting perspective on the NH primary polls and results, and is worth checking into.

I knew something was up when they asked the Obama crowd to sit down when it was his turn to speak at the NH 100 Club dinner. They had not asked the Clinton folks to sit down before Hillary spoke. They cited security concerns, but it looked to me like the folks sitting at the tables in the front of the room were offended by the Obama supporters pushing forward into their space and being so loud and raucous. As I watched that scenario unfold I was outraged. I found myself shouting at the television – “You can’t ask us to sit down!! Who do you think you are?” I was so emotional that it took me several days to sort out what happened in that moment, and why it upset me so deeply. What I think I saw was the established Democratic party contingent, who I assume sponsored the dinner, stomping on the Obama folks and trying to dampen their enthusiasm for their candidate.

What we saw in the days that followed was the established players, press, pollsters, and Clinton supporters reacting to the results of the Iowa caucuses. They were caught off guard by the large Obama turn out in Iowa, and it shook their collective tree big time. The polls and pundits completely changed their slant toward the entire election process, the Clinton’s started to directly attack Obama, and I’m afraid at least some of us Obama supporters got over confident and thought we had won the game when we had only just won the first scrimmage.

My take aways from the past few days are that I need to focus on doing my own analysis, and keep my eye on the real prize – taking back control of our country from the ‘ruling class’ and return it to all of the people. This is a distance event, and we need to be patient and work hard if we want the change that Barack envisions for us. Those that hold the influence and power today are not going to relinquish it without a fight. Our best weapon against their power is our numbers. We must remain unified and actively engaged in this process if we want a positive outcome.

“Yes we can.” (and we will!)

© 2008 Life is an Ongoing Process.