I’m not sure why the pundits and most of the polls do not reflect the strength of Obama’s campaign. I have read several theories about why this phenomenon is occurring, and paralleling it to the Truman – Dewey race in the 40s. The crux of that theory is that polls are extremely unreliable tools for predicting election results if the voting public does not fit the poll sample well. That theory does fit the Obama campaign quite well because a high number of Barack’s supporters are people who do not fit into the “likely voter” category for various reasons. Obama supporters include many first-time voters, both young people, as well as people who have not had any interest in political candidates in the past. Add to that many republicans that are changing their affiliation in order to support Obama, and it is not too hard to see how the polls might be off a bit.
So, here are the latest numbers for the campaign:
Last night (September 30) our movement hit some landmark goals: more than 500,000 donations from more than 350,000 people. In the third financial quarter, more than 93,000 supporters gave the campaign at least $20 million (according to the Obama web site)
We also got news yesterday from Iowa — we’re leading in the latest Newsweek poll of likely caucus-goers. Here’s the breakdown:
Obama: 28%
Clinton: 24%
Edwards: 22%
As I mentioned in my last post, the Obama rally in NYC drew at least 24,000 people.
Finally, if you get a chance, Barack is on for the entire hour of the Tyra Banks show today. Not sure when it airs in your area, but if you follow the link, there is a page on that site that shows the local airing information. I’m watching it now (on my lunch hour), and it is great.
Keep the faith! The ObamaNation Saints are coming!
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